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California

Moderate Growth This Year, Recovery in 2024 – Orange County Register

California’s economy will grow modestly this year, but will pick up in 2024, according to a new report forecast From the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation

The report says the Golden State has outpaced the pandemic-related recovery and will instead be hit by global supply chain volatility and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. ”

The report says the possibility of a “shallow recession” would create its own problems in terms of business closures, unemployment and declining household and tax revenues.

Employment data close to pre-pandemic levels, forecasts show consumer spending debate refocused on curbing demand to curb high inflation, suggesting California has found a ‘new normal’ You can see many signs.

The state’s economy is expected to grow by 0.3% this year. This is below his 0.5% in 2022, but the report predicts that next year’s GDP (the value of all goods and services produced in that year) will grow by 1.5%.

California job growth will slow to 0.8% in 2023, well below last year’s 5% growth and 2021’s 3.2% rise, the report said. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in temporary business closures and numerous job cuts.

The report found that California’s manufacturing sector will lose 27,300 jobs between 2022 and 2024, while trade, transportation and utilities will lose 17,400 jobs, while construction and mining will employ 13,400 jobs. We expect it to decrease. (iStock photo)

Employment growth is expected to slow to 0.2% in 2024.

California’s largest job growth from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be in Education and Health Services (142,000 jobs), followed by Government (28,500) and Leisure and Hospitality (24,700).

On the downside, the LAEDC projects that manufacturing will lose 27,300 jobs over the two years, trade, transport and utilities will lose 17,400 jobs, and construction and mining will lose 13,400 jobs. I’m here.

California’s unemployment rate is projected to average 4.9% in 2023 and 5.5% next year as the state’s economy continues to cool. This is up slightly from 4.4% last year, but down significantly from 10.2% in 2020.

Personal income growth for Californians is expected to rise 4.1% this year, after falling 0.5% in 2022, and is expected to grow 4.4% next year.

The report also shows that the state’s housing affordability rate (the percentage of households able to afford a median single-family home) has fallen to 18%.

And renters, who make up 44.1% of California’s residential units, spend “too much of their income” on their homes. Nearly 55% of his rental properties in California cover the cost, according to the report, meaning renters pay more than 30% of his income in monthly rent.

Los Angeles County

Los Angeles County faces more severe challenges, with the economy contracting 0.2% this year, inflation falling and the Fed slowing its rate hikes, with 1.3% growth expected in 2024. .

Employment growth is expected to plateau at 0.2% this year and 2024. This follows the tumultuous fluctuations the county has seen in the last few years, with him plummeting 11.8% in 2021 and rising 5.4% last year.

The LA County unemployment rate is expected to average 6.4% this year and 6.7% next year. This is significantly higher than California’s unemployment rate of 4.9% and 5.5% over the same period.

The county’s residents’ personal income will also increase slightly, with an increase of 0.1% this year and 2.3% in 2024, the study said.

LA County’s biggest job growth from 2022 to 2024, like the state, will be in education and health services. The industry is expected to add 25,300 jobs over the next two years, including 5,700 jobs in professional and business services and 2,100 jobs in construction and mining.

Manufacturing will survive the biggest decline, losing 9,100 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities (down 5,800) and leisure and hospitality (down 3,100) followed.

https://www.ocregister.com/2023/02/24/california-economy-modest-growth-this-year-with-rebound-in-2024/ Moderate Growth This Year, Recovery in 2024 – Orange County Register

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