Germany faces the threat of post-industrialization
Mea book [From1945entitled”GermanyIsOurProblem”AmericanTreasurySecretaryHenryMorgenthauputforwardaproposaltoremoveitsindustryfrompost-warGermanyandturnitintoanagriculturaleconomyHisradicalproposalsinfluencedAlliedplansfortheoccupationofGermanyafterHitler’sdefeatbutwerenevercarriedout[1945年から、「ドイツは私たちの問題です」と題された、アメリカの財務長官であるヘンリーモーゲンソーは、戦後のドイツからその産業を取り除き、それを農業経済に変えるという提案を提示しました。彼の急進的な提案は、ヒトラーの敗北後のドイツ占領に関する連合軍の計画に影響を与えましたが、実行されることはありませんでした。
Nearly 80 years later, Vladimir Putin may achieve some of what Morgenthau, whose parents were both born in Germany, had in mind.To Weaponizing Natural Gas The Russian president is eroding the world’s fourth-largest economy and third-largest commodity exporter, on which Germany’s strong industrial base depends. At the same time, it doesn’t help that China, Germany’s biggest trading partner, bought her €100 billion ($101 billion) of German goods such as cars, medical equipment and chemicals last year. severe slowdown, that too. A national business model built on cheap energy in one dictatorship and abundant demand in another faces a severe test.
the consequences can be disastrous Germany Silver: German blue chip stocks have been hit harder than others in this year’s market turmoil, falling 27% year-to-date in dollars, almost double the UK’s losses. Futose 100 or American s&p 500 index. “The very nature of our industry is under threat.” bdi, German Industry Association, last month. The situation seemed “toxic” for many companies, he said. And through globalized supply chains, the poison could spread to other developed countries that rely heavily on German manufacturers.
The biggest problem for German industry is the high cost of energy. Electricity bills for next year have already increased by 15 times, gas bills for him by 10 times. bdiIndustrial gas consumption in July was 21% lower than in the same month last year. It’s not because companies use energy more efficiently. Rather, the drop was due to a “dramatic” drop in production. Since June, the think tank Kiel Institute for the World Economy has gdp The growth rate in 2022 is 1.4%, 0.7 percentage points. We now expect the economy to contract in 2023 and inflation to top this year’s at 8.7%.
Small businesses will be hit hardest. According to a July survey Futi Andersch, a consultancy for 100 medium-sized ‘pocket multinationals’ in Germany’s Mittelstand, finds that small businesses are struggling more than large ones. A quarter have canceled or declined an order or plan to do so, compared to 11% of companies with more than 1,000 employees. In a country with more than 3,000 types of bread, some 10,000 bread producers are struggling more than ever in post-war Germany. Despite battling the high costs of flour, butter, sugar and bakeries, you still need electricity and gas to heat your oven and run your kneading machine. His 127-year-old Wiedemann bakery in Berlin, a clerk at his chain, said the company was severely understaffed, keeping ovens in stores at low temperatures, baking all bread at headquarters, etc. to save energy.
According to another recent study, bdi, Out of 600 medium-sized businesses, we found that nearly a tenth have suspended or reduced production due to high input costs. More than 9 in 10 say high energy and raw material prices are a major or existential challenge. One in five of her plans to move some or all of her production to another country. Two-fifths say investment in greener production methods must wait.
Larger energy-intensive businesses, such as chemicals and steel, face similar woes exacerbated by the need to compete with rivals in other countries where energy costs are lower. BasfThe chemical giant, which uses natural gas for both energy and input, has already cut production and may need to cut more. ThyssenKrupp, another major steelmaker, has lost half of its market capitalization since January.
Large multinational companies often have factories in other countries where energy is cheaper.However, many including Basf, despite having a sprawling city-scale complex in Ludwigshafen, continues to produce much domestically. The cost pressure will not go away even if the energy-related assistance rushed to the rescue, as pledged by . Businesses in particular are bracing themselves for brutal annual wage negotiations with Germany’s powerful trade unions.something in between igu Metal, Germany’s largest trade union and employer of the mighty automotive industry, is about to launch. ” Ig Metall will not accept price increases of less than 8%,” predicts Ferdinand Dudenhöffer of the think tank Center Automotive Research.
Passing higher costs onto consumers is becoming increasingly difficult. Hakle, a leading manufacturer of toilet paper, filed for bankruptcy after it was unable to pass on massive increases in production costs to clients. Decreasing for the first time in several years. Dudenhöffer predicts that the next two to three years will be very lean. Auto companies cannot easily change their production processes. Instead, it cuts costs by reducing administration and R&D expenses. Similar to Mittelstand, the auto industry’s belated efforts to rethink itself for the era of electric and self-driving cars could result in setbacks. Some companies will move production to lower-cost countries.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at private bank Berenberg, said 2-3% of German industrial firms using energy-intensive production processes will relocate abroad as energy prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future. I am predicting. A higher proportion of industrial enterprises will reduce production this winter and next winter. Another steel giant, ArcelorMittal, has announced plans to close two of his factories in northern Germany and lay off workers. His Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz, Germany’s largest producer of ammonia and urea, two important chemical raw materials, has closed its own ammonia plant in Saxony his Anhalt.
Shutdowns have caused AdBlue shortages as an example of how such a move would spill over into the supply chain. Basf An indispensable product for cleaning the engines of diesel trucks that connect Germany with foreign markets. “An economic avalanche is heading towards Germany,” warns Stefan Coutz of the Kiel Institute. In time, the response will reach the worldwide customers of the German company. ■
https://www.economist.com/business/2022/09/11/germany-faces-a-looming-threat-of-deindustrialisation Germany faces the threat of post-industrialization
