What’s behind the growth slump? Takeaways from census data

First batch once every 10 years Data from the US Census Bureau Shows the United States, which is slow growing but has a population shifting south and west.

The data released on Monday is relatively basic and includes details on national and state-level population figures and how they affect state representation in parliament. Still, it included some surprises and pointed out some consequential trends.

Five points from the new census data:

Will future growth slow further?

The population of the United States has grown to 331 million. This is an increase of 7.4% since the Census Bureau last counted all people in the country in 2010. These may sound like big numbers, but they’re actually the second slowest population growth rate in the census. Just behind the 7.3% growth recorded so far in the 1930s.

The slowdown in growth over the last decade was rooted in the Great Depression. Our downturn over the last decade has had a similar beginning in the long shadow of the Great Depression. The recovery pulled out saw many young adults struggling to enter the job market, delaying marriage and starting a family. It has hit the country’s fertility rate. Then last year’s pandemic made things worse.

However, while US population growth recovered after the Great Depression, demographers are not optimistic and will soon recover. Most people predict that population growth will be even slower in the coming decades. Americans are older — The median age in the United States is 38, an increase of one year from 37 in 2010. Immigration was declining even before the pandemic effectively closed it. And many Republicans, legal or illegal, strongly opposed the idea of ​​immigrants. This is a new political barrier to rapidly growing countries.

“Unlike the Great Depression, it’s part of a process in which we’re likely to keep growing slowly,” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC.

It can have terrifying consequences for the future of the country. “The great demographic benefits that the United States once enjoyed over other rich countries have evaporated,” tweeted John Retieri, president of the Economic Innovation Group, after the release of census data. “Currently, more and more Americans are over 80 and under 2 years old.”

Great migration continues

The US population may be growing slowly, but it has continued its 80-year trend of shifting south and west.

Florida, Montana, and North Carolina have each grown enough to add more seats in Congress, but two more booming Texas. Colorado and Oregon also won new seats, but Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania lost seats.

The snapshot tells a familiar story: Americans are moving from the Midwest and Northeast of the industry, chasing jobs, more affordable housing, growing new suburbs and vibrant cities.

But, surprisingly, the long-standing symbol of Americans looking for new and next was not part of the story. California’s growth rate wasn’t enough to keep a 53-seat delegation in the House of Representatives. The country’s most populous state has lost parliamentary seats for the first time in its history. This is a fact that has already been debated as to whether the Democratic rule of the state government will be criticized.

Good news for Republicans — for now

These population changes are quickly transformed into political changes. Census data has officially launched a subdivision process in which the state redraws the districts of Parliament and the State Capitol to coordinate new personnel.

Monday news was generally good for Republicans. They manage the constituency change process in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas, occupying four of the seven new seats.

The two Democratic states that have won seats, Colorado and Oregon, do not give that power to the democratically controlled parliament. In Oregon, Democrats have agreed to give Republicans an equal voice in exchange for their pledge not to uphold other laws. Colorado voters then removed the district line drawing from state legislators and handed it over to a nonpartisan committee.

New seats are often just part of a fierce constituency change battle. The Census Bureau will release detailed information up to the block where almost everyone lives in August. New legislative maps will be redrawn in each state to ensure equal representation. However, one party can gain an edge by squeezing rivals into one district or by diversifying rivals so that they do not win the election.

Today, the Republican Party has more control over the State Capitol as a whole, giving it an edge in growing states. Republicans need to win only a handful of seats to gain control of the House of Representatives.

“If all this is done, I think the Republican Party will be in the best shape to regain the majority of the House of Representatives in 2022,” said the Secretary-General of the National Republican Constituency Change Trust, which is coordinating the GOP’s constituency change promotion. Adam Kincaid said.

But there are limits. Many of the new residents of these states are young, voters, and democratic groups. Regardless of how Republicans draw the line, it can be difficult to maintain their dominance for most of the decade.

Is there a problem with how Latin Americans are counted?

In fact, this process was expected to be even better for the Republicans. It was predicted that Texas would have three seats, Florida would have two seats, and Arizona would have one. These shortages were shocking to demographers, with very little data detail and difficulty understanding what happened.

One possibility is that Latin Americans were not counted properly. Latin Americans make up the majority of the population of the three states that did not win the expected seats. Trump failed to push to add a citizenship question to the census, causing allegations that he wanted to threaten migrants and domestic people to illegally participate in the process. The actual count began during a coronavirus pandemic, where it was particularly difficult to reach a particular population.

The gap between expected and actual benefits can be the first sign of Hispanic underestimation. But it’s too early to say without more detailed data to be released in the fall.

“The first results are amazing, and when details are released, we will be able to more accurately determine how fair and accurate the Latino population was counted,” said Latino America. Arturo Vargas, president of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, said.

Mexican-American President of the Legal Defense Education Fund, Thomas Saentz, said he wasn’t ready to “warn” the underestimation, and Latino growth avoids the loss of a second seat in New York. He said it could have helped.

Inch game

The number of censuses was tough for New York. Growth has slowed over the years, with certain outflows of people from the northern and western regions of New York City. But at a press conference on Monday, Census Bureau officials revealed that 89 people weren’t enough to fend off the demographic bullet that the state would lose a seat in Congress.

Parliamentary reallocation is a zero-sum game, where the state divides 435 House seats based on population. Minnesota barely overtook New York to avoid becoming the last state to lose seats. Had New York counted an additional 89 inhabitants and all other states remained the same, the states would retain their seats and Minnesota would have lost one.

Minnesota, which had the highest self-answer rate in the country, also secured the last seat in 2010.

What’s behind the growth slump? Takeaways from census data Source link What’s behind the growth slump? Takeaways from census data

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