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Vaccines are working: the charts that show the Covid endgame

It’s almost easy to feel Coronavirus pandemic It’s out of control again. Last week, new case rates set a new record, affecting 5.2 million people worldwide, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Three months ago, many people in India celebrated the prospect that the country was approaching herd immunity.Currently, the number of new cases is Growing at an amazing rate..

In Europe, regulators and politicians are trying to manage their security concerns. Raised about AstraZeneca vaccine: In the United States, health agencies Stop using J & J jab..

But the depressing headline surge can’t hide one thing. vaccine I’m working. Vaccines have saved lives in countries where cases have declined in recent months. And in countries that are still struggling to control the third or fourth wave, vaccines are also saving lives.

An FT analysis of data from five countries, each facing a very different scenario, shows that infection, hospitalization, and mortality rates are the youngest in the most vaccinated age group. It follows a path lower than the age group. Jab.

This does not matter whether the infection is increasing or decreasing, or whether the country is working on one of the new variants, regardless of the number of cases of the virus.

The results are in stark contrast to the patterns seen during the early viral waves prior to the introduction of the vaccine, with older groups consistently having a slower incidence of illness than younger ones. I saw.

None of this will alleviate future challenges. Data also show that in most developing countries where vaccines are more scarce, millions will continue to be at risk for the next few months.

However, in countries that have vaccinated the largest share of the population, there are tentative signs that the end of Covid may be visible, as shown in the FT chart below.


British vaccine effect

In EnglandThe number of cases, hospitalization rates, and mortality rates have been steadily declining in all age groups since January, suggesting that restrictions help curb the wave of winter infections. However, under superficial trends, the proportion of all three measures is declining even more rapidly among the most vaccinated groups of older people.

In the UK, cases, hospitalizations and deaths decreased faster in the older, mostly vaccinated group than in the younger group.

Proof by age

Indeed, the impact of the UK’s strict UK prioritization of age-appropriate vaccine access is easily seen in case data. As each age group qualifies for vaccination, the proportion of all cases declined. Since the start of vaccination, the proportion of cases over the age of 80 has decreased by 80%.

Graph showing that each age group in the UK has been vaccinated and the proportion of cases has decreased

Vaccine effect in France

A third wave of the virus is blocking the progression across the French channel, but the same obvious signs of vaccination are apparent. Case numbers and hospitalization rates rose in March, but rose much more slowly in the most vaccinated age groups than in the least vaccinated age groups. Despite the resurgence of young people, the death toll of older people continued to decline.

In France's third wave, the number of cases, inpatients, and deaths increased between young and middle-aged, but remained flat or decreased among the elderly.

B.1.17 threat

The revival of the pandemic in France, and many other pandemics in the last few weeks, B.1.1.7 variant in the UK During September. By March, it had become the dominant variant throughout Europe and is now widespread throughout North America.

Graph showing that

U.S. experience

The arrival of the “UK variant” in the United States threatened one of the most impressive vaccination deployments in the world, but as in France, the data suggest that the vaccine is still functioning as expected. doing. This variant has increased hospitalization rates, but the increase is being driven by young people, and hospitalization rates for the elderly continue to decline.

Graph showing that in the United States, hospitalizations continue to decline in older, more vaccinated groups, despite the resurgence of young adults

Chile confronts the third wave

The rigorous testing of the vaccine was done in Chile, and the rapid rollout of China’s Sinovac jab Substantial third wave of virus.. But once again, the age breakdown tells a hopeful story about vaccines. Intensive care unit occupancy has more than doubled in young adults, while entering the age group that prioritizes vaccination.

Graph showing that cases, ICU cases, and deaths are increasing rapidly in Chile's young population, but are stable or declining in vaccinated older people

Global battle continues

Many countries are still fighting serious outbreaks. The most important of these is India, which currently reports more than 200,000 new cases daily. The percentage of tests that returned positive is rising faster than in any other country, suggesting that many cases are overlooked, and ICUs are abundant in the country’s most hit areas. .. To date, only 8 percent of the population has been vaccinated at least once.

A graph showing that infections are increasing again in many countries. Especially in India, the positive rate of the test is increasing surprisingly rapidly.

Latin American struggle

Most countries, such as India, that are fighting brutal outbreaks are in developing countries. But in Latin America, Uruguay reports that daily Covid-19 deaths surged from 1.15 million on March 1st to 18.55 on April 15th, the third highest in the world. Neighboring Argentina and Brazil are also suffering from increased deaths from the virus. The latter has added 123,000 deaths in the last two months, bringing the total to nearly 375,000.

Graph showing Covid-19 mortality rising again across Latin America

Important data found in over-death

Increasing availability of Covid-19 data in the Western world can give the impression that US, UK, and European pockets have been hit hardest by pandemics, but a more comprehensive analysis is Latin. It shows that America is arguably the most suffering. Using the concept of over-death (the number of people dying from all causes that exceed seasonal standards), Latin American countries have four of the five highest mortality rates in the world.

A graph showing how excess mortality has been compared around the world since the outbreak of Covid-19 began. Six of the seven worst deaths have occurred in Latin American countries

Covid endgame?

The key to getting India and Latin America out of the pandemic is the same everywhere else. It is a vaccine. A year after hundreds of millions of people have lived under restrictions to save lives, the goal is for people to spend more time in society with little restrictions while cases continue to decline. Is to be able to do it.Israel seems to have Arrived at the Covid endgame, And Britain is hot shortly thereafter. More countries will participate as countries continue their vaccination programs.

A graph showing that Israel has achieved its goal of resuming the economy while the number of Covid-19 cases continues to decline steadily.The UK is lagging behind, but other countries continue to see more cases, lower mobility levels, or both.

Vaccines are working: the charts that show the Covid endgame Source link Vaccines are working: the charts that show the Covid endgame

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