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The startup market is taking on more and more risk – TechCrunch

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Hello from the furiously cold east coast of America where I am Eat donuts To prevent the effects of my COVID-19 vaccine booster shot. So far, the third dose of Moderna isn’t as bad as the second, but it knows who will come and what. So, in case I fall off my desk chair and take a nap straight, I’ll briefly explain today.

First of all, thank you. This little weekend newsletter currently has over 30,000 subscribers and open rates are high every week from the mid-40s.It’s part of Larger project I kicked off on TechCrunch when I came back, but it was far from the resolved question when I added the newsletter to a regular Exchange column.

Frankly, I thought it would be a coin toss if I could get an audience. The bet has been paid, and thanks to you, Exchange is currently issuing 6 times a week. That is very fun. Thank you very much.

Come on, risk!

A while ago Chat through points Risks from start-up markets are more often slipping into the public market. This meant that, thanks to SPACs and some, regular investors could get early, higher-priced startup equity than before. interesting Open call for participants..

However, there was an implicit argument in that regard: Start-up The risk for that is also increasing private Market supporters. Let’s talk about what’s happening:

  • Startups are gaining praise thanks to sufficient capital availability, limited investment with strong yields, and related issues. You have heard this bit before.
  • Startup rating Also It is rising thanks to more investors advancing early in the investment process. Again, you’ve heard this before. But you may not know how it is a matter of self-reinforcement. Large funds can invest “earlier” than considering the size of the fund, and basically buy large stocks of the startup in question without jeopardizing the overall return profile. You can sign an option contract. This generally pushes out late-stage funds faster. And, thanks to the dollar difference, the valuation rises as late investors become less price-sensitive to the initial valuation. More simply, if you have a billion dollars to invest and you put $ 5 million into Series A, you don’t really care if it’s a $ 65 million pre-valuation or a $ 75 million pre-valuation.What are you NS What’s worrisome is to put another $ 50 million into the winner when raising the next round.
  • But that’s not all. Venture investors are not only proving that tech companies are growing faster than expected, but they are also proving that they are growing faster, and startups are gaining praise. Reported to Exchange. durability More than expected. This means that previous startups have been listed at a faster growth rate than many expected, and have maintained their pace of expansion longer. The impact is that tech companies may be more valuable than expected in the future. So investors can pay more and don’t have to worry step by step as you would expect.
  • Another factor Menlo investors should consider when it comes to rising prices Matt Murphy What I recently explained to me is that old venture expectations for startup failure rates are no longer correct.Failure rate is lower than before and is most important strike He said the rate was higher.

You may look at and think of the above as a whole Well, maybe all those Instagram unicorns and 6 digit rounds make sense? It’s a somewhat comforting point of view. After all, presumably smart money is because faster, more durable growth and less failure (essentially hard to kill SaaS) generate the kind of profits needed to correct venture math. We are betting on balancing higher costs.

However, buttttttttttThe risk is increasing as the startup market fundamentals haven’t improved much since the COVID boom in software purchases began after the initial pandemic shock subsided. This means that startups backed by venture investors this year haven’t seen any real improvement in macro fortunes since mid-2020, but are busy raising more money faster. .. It increases investment risk.

There are over 900 unicorns on the market today, all of which require an IPO to generate the benefits that supporters expect. If the market eventually modifies a bit a bit More historically consistent, a significant number of high-value private companies may find themselves stuck between the valuation of the private market and what the public market may pay.that Maybe … Sticky. People are just betting that they aren’t.

All this means that it’s not a risk-free bet, even though startup prices are rising and there’s a reason to raise more capital faster and faster.

Now go eat the leftovers and fuck offline.

— —Alex



The startup market is taking on more and more risk – TechCrunch Source link The startup market is taking on more and more risk – TechCrunch

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