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Second Consecutive La Niña Winter Looms — Still Anyone’s Guess If It Will Be a Repeat Dryspell For NorCal

Two consecutive winters in La Niña are probably not suitable for this drought we are facing. It’s really rainy and we need a relentless El Nino season now. But unlike last winter, expect average or slightly above average rainfall.

Back in august We were already at La Niña WatchA forecaster at the Center for Climate Prediction states that there is a 60% chance that another La Niña pattern will form. and now, As CNN reportsThe Center issued the La Niña Advisory today, stating that “La Niña is expected to affect temperature and precipitation throughout the United States in the coming months.”

As explained earlier on this site, the La Niña pattern does not guarantee a dry or moist condition in this part of the world. It’s basically sandwiched between the two, and things can rock in either direction. Also, climate change can change patterns, and La Niña’s winter history-based projections may be unwise.

It is common wisdom that winters in Laninha bring rainy winters to the Pacific Northwest and drier and warmer winters to Southern California, southwestern and southern California. Last year, we expected additional rain in the bay area coming down from the north after a season of exhausted, smoke-filled fire, but that didn’t happen.

Map via NOAA

On average, in this region, winters in La Niña begin dry, but can rain and snow. Catch up with normal levels By the second half of the season. Last year it didn’t happen.

On February 2nd, there was little or no rain in the Bay Area. This is strange in every year. This year there was a storm in late January, followed by a historic dryness in February and 0.00 inches of rain in February 2020. Few people wanted skiing because we were in a pandemic, but Miracle March was elusive.

Another La Niña phenomenon can have dire consequences during the Atlantic hurricane season.

“The La Niña phenomenon is associated with a vertical reduction in windsia in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic,” Philcrotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, told CNN. “La Niña can extend the active part of the season because the shear is usually too great to end the Atlantic hurricane season.”

Crotzbach adds that no one predicts the super-active end of the hurricane season, but La Niña’s confirmation means that a big late-season storm is more possible now.

Overall temperatures tend to drop globally in the year of La Niña, but as CNN points out, this is where climate change appears to overturn historical patterns. Best example: The year of La Niña, 2020, is linked to the hottest year of record, the year of El Nino, 2016.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will announce its official winter outlook next week. October 21..

Second Consecutive La Niña Winter Looms — Still Anyone’s Guess If It Will Be a Repeat Dryspell For NorCal Source link Second Consecutive La Niña Winter Looms — Still Anyone’s Guess If It Will Be a Repeat Dryspell For NorCal

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