The midnight stroke on June 15th breaks the spell. The mask may fall off. Churches, gyms and cinemas can be full. Finally, you’ll be able to see a smile on your face, and sales of lip balm, and perhaps breath mint, will surely grow.
Some are worried because California stands on a normal cliff after more than a year of pandemic drama and trauma. Are you really ready? Is a nation that bravely vowed to obey science really obey science?
“When the date of June 15 was announced in April, I wondered,” Which crystal ball is in the state? ” According to Andrew Neumer, an epidemiologist and demographer at the University of California, Irvine. “They probably felt a little cheeky.”
Clouds were floating in much of California on January 7, the darkest day of the pandemic, when 22,836 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 and 4,905 were very ill and needed intensive care. On that day alone, 690 people died.
Fast forward until June 8th when the sky was blue. Only 1,304 Californians were hospitalized with COVID-19, and only 270 were so ill that they needed intensive care. No one died.
Less secret weapon: vaccine. Only 500,000 Californians were vaccinated in early January. By early June, more than 22 million people had been vaccinated.
Innate immunity built by widespread infection — Although not expected to be as powerful as vaccine-induced immunity — Played a similar role.
“They did it,” Neumer said. “The numbers look good. In California, COVID isn’t a big deal so far.”
And few experts disagree.
Dr. John Swartzberg, Professor Emeritus of the Department of Infectious Diseases and Vaccines at the University of California, Berkeley, said:
“It really exceeded my expectations and is a testament to two main things. These vaccines work much better than we thought, and we are very positive about this last step. There are governments that have guided and made vaccines widely available. “
George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco, said: “It needs to be better — but we’re off the sharp end of the curve.”
Politics or science?
California Health and Welfare Secretary Mark Garry claims that the date of June 15 was pulled out of his hat by a confused governor facing a scallop, but what is politics in the decision? Also does not play the role of. California Institute of Public Policy Webinar Friday, June 11th.
During April He said Ghaly and other officials gathered at Zoom to do some basic calculations as eligibility expanded and vaccine supply actually increased.
They allowed weeks before all age-appropriate Californians had the opportunity to be vaccinated. We looked at the maximum amount of time that must elapse between shots. This was four weeks for Moderna. It takes so long for the immune system to fight the best COVID, so I added two weeks to it. And I noticed that I was watching a block of time for about 8 weeks.
“We were in mid-April,” Ghaly said. “We basically fast forward until June 15. That gave people enough time to be fully vaccinated. It was a thoughtful decision.”
If these predictions were wrong, the state would have adjusted the date, but it wasn’t. And we don’t discuss success.
“I think we’re ready,” said Dr. Julie Parsonnet, a professor of medicine, epidemiology, and artificial health at Stanford University. “California is doing surprisingly well.
“We have effective treatments-not perfect, but effective-and if people are vaccinated, they should not need treatment. They can be vaccinated. Everyone who can do it must be vaccinated. In my opinion, there is no excuse for death from COVID. “
More freedom, more cases?
A midnight stroke on Tuesday is like turning a pumpkin into a carriage.
In most places, vaccinated people do not need a mask. Unvaccinated people are supposed to continue to cover up in certain situations to slow their spread, which is primarily an honor system.
There is no limit to the number of people you can gather in a store, restaurant, theme park or church. And because there is no physical distance requirement, people can get as close as they want to all others.
Many workers in grocery stores and other businesses continue to wear masks, but state guidelines continue to evolve, including public transport, school indoors, medical facilities, shelters, and correctional facilities. People need a mask. Whether you are vaccinated.
If you’re heading to a Metallica concert in the indoor arena, organize your masks or paperwork. Large indoor rallies of 5,000 or more require proof of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test, and the same is recommended but not required for large outdoor rallies of 10,000 or more.
More than 10,000 people? After what we have experienced, it causes a lot of tremors, despite the evidence that the virus has completely receded. Nonetheless, when Dodger Stadium returns to full capacity on Tuesday, it is expected to have more than 50,000 fans.
Recent PPIC State-wide survey Californians are far less afraid of being infected with the virus than they were a year ago, but we find that concerns remain relatively high among people of color and low-income Californians.
According to polls, Latin Americans (42%), Asian Americans (34%), and African Americans (32%) were far more likely to be concerned than whites (14%). And where Californians are on the income ladder has a strong influence on the equation. Households under $ 40,000 a year are more concerned than households over $ 80,000 (40%). (15%).
You may find that their concerns are well-founded. In the short term, unvaccinated people are at increased risk of getting infected because the masks come off and people get together without restrictions, experts say. Almost all new COVID-19 cases (about 97%) are found in unvaccinated people, according to Swartsburg.
That leads to an increase in cases.
“A small increase, if not a significant increase, can slow down the decline and, in some cases, cause a slight blip,” Swartsburg said.
Stanford’s personality isn’t too worried. The current case load is low enough that if new cases occur, California has the talent to isolate them, limit their spread, care for the sick, and attract more people. Vaccination. She said continuous vigilance was essential.
Neumer is dull. “If you weren’t vaccinated, it’s reached where it depends on you,” Neumer said. “it’s up to you.”
Garry was probably more diplomatic. “If you are not vaccinated, COVID will find you,” he said. “It’s so mean.”
“No one can predict the future”
But the wildcard is working. Vaccines appear to be effective against viral variants that are currently prevalent, but it is unclear how effective they will be against new mutants in the future.
Neumer is basically looking forward to a peaceful summer, but is worried about what will happen next.
“The next 12 weeks won’t be too bad, and no one knows what will happen in the fall and winter,” he said.
Due to the reduced humidity, the virus is more likely to spread indoors and in cold weather. “I don’t think we’ll see anything like December and January last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a surge in cases in late fall and a peak in midwinter,” Swartsberg said. Said.
Southern states with low vaccination levels — And in most other parts of the world, access to vaccines is very limited. — It can be a much harsher winter than California. Here, Vaccines for groups aged 5-11 will be available this fall. This can be of great help in slowing the spread of autumn and winter.
“No one can predict the future,” said Stanford University’s personalet. “I don’t think this virus will be completely gone. You need to pay attention to it, just as you pay attention to other diseases like measles. There is no more immunity to measles. Cases that occur. The health department identifies them, surrounds them, immunizes people, and limits their spread. “
She expects almost the same with COVID-19.
“We have this great opportunity to protect ourselves and each other with a very safe and highly effective vaccine,” said Personet. “The more people vaccinated in the United States, the more they will help stop the epidemic.”
But in California? According to experts, it is unlikely that they will even be whispered until the call election is over.
“Centrist and right-wing politics don’t like this idea, which can make everyone unhappy,” said Rutherford of UCSF. “I think we’ll see commercial organizations intervening to do this.”
Adapting even to normal reasonable replication is not easy for everyone. Taking off your mask at the supermarket may make you feel like you are taking it off in public. There is no scientific reason for fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks in most situations, but experts say it is likely that it will take some time for many to feel completely comfortable. .. People should and will do so at their own pace.
Families with unvaccinated younger children may work in solidarity with their children to cover the interior. It can be considered polite to wear masks where workers wear masks to reduce the amount of strangers breathing into those workers.
Rutherford wasn’t too worried about going to Megaplex to see a new Bond movie or not wearing a mask in a half-filled big theater, but it’s packed and ventilated. It feels different in a small art movie theater. I’m suspicious.
But this is the summer when kids play in the great outdoors without masks, Ghaly said. Californians stepped into the plate, distanced themselves from masking, and did everything they needed to get vaccinated. They should be proud.
But this is a global illness and we are not an island. “Part of the world is experiencing things on the other side of the spectrum. Devastation,” Garry said. “Subspecies need to spread the vaccine and monitor their chances of escape.”
According to all experts, the surest way to counter this is to vaccinate everyone as soon as possible, wherever they are.
Pandemic restrictions will largely vanish this week. Politics? Or science? – San Bernardino Sun Source link Pandemic restrictions will largely vanish this week. Politics? Or science? – San Bernardino Sun