But as a Southern Californian tired of shutting down Welcome the reopening of schools, gymnasiums and cinemas According to experts, the resurgence of indoor diets is likely to lead to a further surge in hospitalizations and deaths in the region.
And they need to be vigilant (wear a face cover, keep a safe distance from others, avoid the crowd), and plan to take shots of the coronavirus. Is called.
“We got there,” said Dr. Russellbühl, a lung and life-saving physician who treats patients at the Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center and other hospitals. “We are on track.”
Nearly 3 million vaccines Managed in Los Angeles County Over 1 million shots Given in Orange County. In the Inland Empire 700,000 doses were given to residents of Riverside County And more 500,000 inhabitants of San Bernardino County..
However, another surge of threat continues until about 70% to 80% of the population is immune to the virus as a result of firing or recovering from COVID-19, Buhr said.
And millions more people will need to be vaccinated before the area reaches its point, he said in an interview on Thursday, March 18.
Dr. Troy Pennington, a physician in the emergency room at the Arrowhead Community Medical Center in Colton, San Bernardino County, said the area was essentially a “competition between variants and vaccines.”
In short, it’s not time to celebrate.
“We shouldn’t do end-zone dance,” said Andrew Neumer, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Irvine’s public health program.
The number of inpatients seen is small
Hospitalization peaked in early January.
The worst day in LA County was January 5, with 8,098 confirmed viral cases hospitalized. Orange County peaked at 2,259 on January 7, and San Bernardino County peaked at 1,785 on January 5. Riverside County reported up to 1,671 COVID-19 cases on January 8th and 10th.
After that, things finally improved and the number of patients receiving treatment began to decline. By the end of February, hospitals in the area reported about 30% fewer patients each day than they did a week ago.
The numbers are still declining. But since the beginning of March, the pace has slowed considerably. On Thursday, the latest day the numbers were available, the number of patients in the hospital was about 17% lower than in the previous week.
As long as hospitalization plummeted (down about 90% from its January peak), it has not yet returned to the lowest levels seen in the fall. On Thursday, there were 1,380 confirmed cases admitted to four counties. This is 225 more than the September low, or 23% more.
By county, the total was 827 in Los Angeles, 206 in Orange, 175 in Riverside, and 172 in San Bernardino.
Community-wide public health experts reflect the concerns recently expressed by President Biden’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and at some point numbers have stopped improving and are beginning to level off.
“Hospitalization is declining and we are cautiously optimistic,” wrote Bruce Weng, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, Riverside Health Systems Medical Center, in an email. “But there are concerns that we may level off and rise again. Given the potential growth of variants in the community, the coming weeks are very important.”
Mr. Weng, who runs a hospital in Riverside County, said he was “extremely concerned.” Europe is experiencing a huge surge..
He expects another wave to hit the United States.
“The question is how big it will be,” he said.
Is there another wave of viruses?
Buhr, UCLA’s lung and emergency physician, also said he believed the situation would worsen again.
“It’s not a smooth voyage, and there will probably be some adaptations and launches in the coming months,” Buhr said.
Also, as the region has a long way to vaccinate workers under the age of 65, USC health policy research professor Jakub Hlavka said the surge has disproportionately harmed minorities and low-income earners. He said he was concerned about the consequences. Given that, it’s a big concern. For example, Latin Americans die at a higher rate He said more than others.
Still, Pennington, a doctor in the Arrowhead emergency room, said he doesn’t think the waves would be as devastating as the waves that hit the area during the holidays, as few people are susceptible to the virus.
“I don’t think it will be like what we saw in the third wave,” Pennington said.
He said the vaccine proved to be very effective in preventing death.
“In that sense, the vaccine was a home run,” he said.
The vaccine also prevents serious illness in people infected after the shot, Bühl said.
“If a life-threatening illness catches a cold, it’s a victory,” he said.
With improved outlook, experts generally support clear California guidelines Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino And Riverside This week’s county moves to the loosely restricted red layer Stuck in the most restrictive purple layer For several months.
People are tired, Neumer said. They have been sacrificing for a year. And he said the situation had improved to the point where it was time to relax the restrictions.
“If you expect people to trust the public health system, you have to keep your promise,” Neumer said.
Will be difficult to close again
However, Neumer said it is important to follow the details of the guidelines, such as limiting the gym capacity to 10% and the restaurant capacity to 25%.
“What we’re doing makes a lot more sense than what Texas is doing,” Neumer said. “They opened it all at once.”
Still, there are risks associated with resuming — an acceptable risk, but still a risk, he said.
Hlavka said it was important to move forward carefully to avoid recurrence.
“It will be very difficult to close again,” he said.
Experts generally believe that California is on the right track for reopening, but they do not suggest rushing into all available activities.
Hlavka and Noymer recommend that you do not eat indoors or exercise in the gym unless you are fully vaccinated.
Unless vaccinated, Neumer said, “I’m not going near the gym right now” because of the dyspnea associated with exercise.
Gym taking precautions
Gyms and fitness centers claim to take steps to protect people exercising.
For example, Rikki Hubbard, owner of t3 Fitness, a small women’s fitness center on the riverside, said he has upgraded his ventilation system and is constantly cleaning his equipment.
According to Hubbard, the full-body training class has been reduced from one hour to 45 minutes, giving him time to clean up before the next session.
After each class, the woman puts the dumbbells used in her training in a bottle labeled “Dirty” and disinfects each weight before the next class.
According to Hubbard, a face cover is needed when entering and exiting and in areas with heavy traffic. She said they were allowed to remove the mask when clients settled in a designated area marked up to 8 feet away for the class.
According to Hubbard, the number of people in the class will be reduced and participants will need to register in advance. There is no carry-on. She added that clients are asked to clean their hands before entering the studio.
Hubbard’s center continues to offer outdoor classes, giving customers the option to participate in exercise remotely via Zoom.
Hlavka called going to the gym a “very personal choice”.
He said he went to the gym in Santa Monica on Monday, March 15th for the first time in a year and added that he had been vaccinated. Jim seems to be taking appropriate precautions, he said.
“They weren’t even 10% (capacity),” he said.
Many advances have been made, but safeguards are still needed
In any case, experts say it’s not time to relax.
Mr. Weng said people need to continue the basics: keeping a safe distance from others, avoiding gathering with people outside the house, wearing face coverings, and often Wash your hands.
He recommended that fully vaccinated people follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention GuidelinesAllows indoor visits with other people who received the shot, without masks or social distance. The guidelines also allow unmasked indoor visits with unvaccinated single-family people at low risk.
Weng said precautions should still be taken around people at risk of serious illness.
“For example, if I want to visit an elderly grandmother who is vaccinated and has cancer, but she is not vaccinated, I still mask in this situation,” he writes. “Do you really want to risk getting her infected?”
Experts encourage people to stay vigilant and reassure their progress.
“We’re a light-year away from where we started to move from a state where we don’t even understand what the November 2019 coronavirus was to its current state,” says Buhr. We have come a long way. “
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