As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread in France, it is imperative to thoroughly characterize the need for hospital care, the trajectory of inpatients, and how they have changed over time in order to plan. is. This allows scientists at the Pasteur Institute and the Mathematical Modeling Unit for Infectious Diseases at the University of Cambridge to analyze detailed patient trajectories based on 198,846 hospitalizations in France during the first nine months of the pandemic. We have developed a probabilistic model that can be used. From March to November 2020). The results of these surveys are Lancet Regional Health Europe March 20, 2021.
This model takes into account changes in the patient’s age and gender over time and investigates changes in the probability of ICU admission, death, and discharge, and changes in length of stay.
Scientists have observed significant changes in the age and gender of patients admitted during the study. In particular, the proportion of inpatients over the age of 80 fluctuated between 27% and 48% during the epidemic and was low between the two waves. The proportion of women in hospitals fluctuated between 45% and 53% during the epidemic.
Scientists also showed that inpatient outcomes changed significantly during the pandemic. For example hospitalized patient Admission to the ICU decreased from 25.4% (24.4% -26.4%) to 12.6% (11.6% -13.6%) during the first 4 months (March to June) in parallel with the decrease in the number of cases. , Then rose to 19.3. % In the second wave (18.9% -19.7%). The probability of death follows a similar path, dropping from 24.9% (24% -25.9%) to 10% (8.7% -11.3%) after the first wave and then back to 18.6% (18.1% -19%). It has risen. The second wave. These tendencies were similar for both men and women.
“These major fluctuations in ICU admission and mortality probability need to be taken into account when planning. hospital “The need for care,” explains Simon Corchemes, head of the Mathematical Modeling Unit for Infectious Diseases at the Pasteur Institute and the final author of the study.
“These reasons Major changes Changes in patient mortality since the onset of pandem remain unclear, but changes in patient behavior for health care, changes in health care center tensions, and treatments as doctors learn more about the disease. May represent a combination of improvements. “Noémie Lefrancq, a PhD student in the Faculty of Genetics at the University of Cambridge and the lead author of this study, concludes.
Noémie Lefrancqetal, Progress in Outcomes of Patients Hospitalized During the First Nine Months of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in France: Retrospective National Surveillance Data Analysis, Lancet Regional Health-Europe (2021). DOI: 10.1016 / j.lanepe.2021.100087
Quote: Progress in outcomes for patients admitted during the COVID pandemic (April 8, 2021) from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-evolution-outcomes-patients-hospitalized-covid.html to 2021 Obtained on April 8th.
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