Early warning signals could help monitor disease outbreaks

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New studies suggest that Early Warning Signals (EWS) may help monitor the outbreak of diseases such as COVID-19. The study, led by the University of Bristol, found that warnings could be detected weeks earlier than the surge in cases. The findings may help governments and policy makers improve decision-making accuracy and enable timely intervention as needed.

A study published today using a new sequential analysis combined with daily COVID-19 case data from 24 countries. [8 December] of Biology letter, Suggests that EWS can predict COVID-19 waves. Researchers have found that warnings are periodically detectable before the exponential case changes. However, the reliability of these signals depended on the time between successive waves of infection and the mathematical potential of significant transitions. As a result, EWS showed the highest accuracy for waves with suppressed R numbers over a long period of time before they occurred.

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic shows, being able to identify a sharp increase before a case occurs is important for people to modify their behavior and provide information. Government action..

Duncan O’Brien of the Department of Life Sciences in Bristol said: Many discussions about the pandemic and when the government should implement the intervention.

“Our research found that there was a heated debate. Early warning signal Most reliable before the second COVID-19 wave that many experienced, these signals did not work very well on the first and third waves, but the rapid increase in cases is considerable. I was able to identify it in advance.

“Since there is a lot of contradictory evidence surrounding the use of EWS in epidemiology and ecological monitoring in general, some methodological points raised in this work help others unravel the complex behavior of these warnings. I hope it helps. “

Interpreting EWS can be difficult when using real-world data, as it requires certain mathematical conditions. However, recent conceptual work that relaxes some of these requirements is supported in this study, but is generally discounted while using EWS in epidemiology. Therefore, the next step in the study is to investigate how the methodological differences announced today improve the general assessment of disease kinetics.

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For more information:
The reliability of the early warning signal depends on the COVID-19 wave. Biology letter (2021). DOI: 10.1098 / rsbl.2021.0487..…. 1098 / rsbl.2021.0487

Quote: The early warning signal is from on December 7, 2021 for the outbreak of the disease (December 7, 2021). May be useful for monitoring

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