Doug Kass predicted some of 2022’s biggest surprises;: Here’s his list for 2023

Will gold rise to $3,000 an ounce by the second half of next year? Will the predictions of a recession in the first half of 2023 and an upturn in the second half be reversed? Will oil have a surprise rally in the second half?

Those are all big surprises, right?

But shouldn’t we be used to surprises by now? Shouldn’t we prepare for them? In fact, when we say goodbye to 2022, one thing is clear. 2022 was the year of “endless surprises”.

write so real money famous doug cass Hedge fund The manager who’s been writing his annual ‘surprise’ list for decades daily diary upon real money pro.

2023 Surprise Revealed

For those who want to hear what another anti-group thinks, Cass has plenty of bets on what might happen in the next 12 months. That includes Elon Musk sacrificing Tesla to save her Twitter. (TSLA)- Get Free ReportShock Apple (AAPL)- Get Free Report Mergers, Bitcoin’s Big Plunge (~ BTCUSD) Gold and oil values ​​and their predicted jumps.

“The broad and correctness of the generally pessimistic surprises for 2022 supported the reason and rationale for conducting this exercise every year, because considering the mostly negative surprises Traders and investors could have saved a lot of money, because by adopting some of my Surprise concepts in their portfolios, traders and investors could have made a lot of money.” Kass writes in sentences of over 4,000 words “Surprise” entry. “The purpose of my annual list is to encourage readers to think more deeply about various issues.”

It all started 21 years ago, when Kass prepared a list of possible surprises for the coming year, taking a page from his friend and former Morgan Stanley chief investment strategist Byron Wien’s playbook. rice field. Kass spent about a month on the list, going from about 40 surprises to 15 that he normally cuts down to, but this year he’s down to 10 and 5 “does it again.”

Accuracy of last year’s list

How right was Kass with his outlandish predictions for 2022? Four of his five key predictions have been proven correct. hawks But either there’s little luck in putting a brake on price gains this year (any active investor who also grocery shop can attest to that), or after hitting new all-time highs in early 2022, the stock market will can roll over (well stated).

Kass also announced that in December 2021, Amazon’s (AMZN)- Get Free Report Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk set records for the biggest personal wealth losses in a year, value stocks significantly outperformed growth stocks, and China’s economy will weaken compared to then-low expectations.

Of course Kass had some predictions, especially political ones, but they didn’t pan out.

But, as Kass points out, the real purpose of his “surprise” is that it’s hard to read, but it’s also realistic: “Align part of my portfolio with outlier events.” It is to consider placing it on a large scale, and consider that it can give you a big payoff” with a small stake/investment.

Kass also reminds readers that his “surprise” is not a prediction, but an event that has a probability of greater than 50%, but a probability of 25% or less compared to the consensus expectation. only considered deeper outlier events. “In other words, my surprise is anti-‘collective stink,'” Kass writes.

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