Health

Delta a new challenge for herd immunity

Credits: Justin Kilian on AIX

New modeling by scientists at James Cook University shows that Australia needs to vaccinate at least 85 percent of its population to achieve herd immunity.

Emma McBryde, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology and modeling at JCU’s Australian Institute of Tropical Health Medicine (AITHM), said modeling impacts the federal government’s four-step plan to move from COVID suppression to resumption and reversion strategies It says to give. Normal life.

“The first hurdle is to vaccinate to achieve Flock However, herd immunity is more infectious and less susceptible to vaccination, making it more difficult to achieve with delta mutants, “says Professor McBride.

She said the AITHM team will work with countries in our region to investigate and optimize herd immunity thresholds. Vaccine distribution Repeated the movement around the world for the original Wuhan strain, and now for the Delta variety.

“Assuming the number of Delta Variant 4 reproductions (the number of people infected with the virus), it shows that 85% of Australia’s population needs to be vaccinated using current strategies. “We do,” said Professor McBryde.

She said that Australia can achieve herd immunity by vaccination of 75% of the population when the vaccine is targeted at the most infectious ages. However, this may not be realistic. This is because the age group of 20 to 60 years requires almost 100% uptake.

“We have also shown that even without herd immunity, vaccinated people are protected from serious illness and are much less likely to be hospitalized or die,” said Professor McBride.

She said the AITHM team concluded that the delta variant makes it very difficult to achieve herd immunity.

“But it’s important to remember that as Australia approaches, both vaccinated and unvaccinated people reduce their risk of infection and illness. Herd immunity.. ”


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Quote: Delta is a new challenge for herd immunity acquired on July 5, 2021 from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-07-delta-herd-immunity.html (July 5, 2021)

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