Health

COVID-19 roadmap for reopening could lead to a third wave in England

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According to Imperial’s latest modeling, the current roadmap from the blockade of England could result in an additional 15,700 deaths by next summer.

Estimate The Imperial College COVID-19 response team suggests that vaccination alone is not sufficient to control the epidemic for eligibility. Vaccine hesitant, And high transmission of circulating variants.

This report provides information on the “roadmap” from the British blockade of the British government, along with research from the University of Warwick and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).

At the current timing of the roadmap, researchers estimate that the peak occupancy of hospitals is lower than the current wave, but there will be significant additional deaths by June 2022. They estimate an additional 15,700 deaths from COVID-19 throughout England during that period.

However, researchers say the estimates do not explain the decline in both naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity and can worsen the results than the estimates. ..

Professor Neil Ferguson of the Faculty of Public Health said:

“The magnitude of this wave is uncertain, but it should be lower than before, unless the vaccine is deployed quickly, has high uptake, and has an antigenic escape mutation.”

The team uses a large dataset that includes data on positive cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and serological tests that look for antibodies in the blood.

Dr. Marc Bagelin of the Faculty of Public Health said: “Each dataset alone provides partial and incomplete information. For example, serological studies do not provide direct information about population protection because the presence of antibodies is not completely protected. ..

“Every week, our model is jointly adapted to various major epidemiological datasets and is in good agreement with these data to integrate the current location of the epidemic with potential future locations in different scenarios. Offers.”

Regional differences

Predicted epidemic trajectories vary by region, with fewer cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in areas that were first hit hardest during the first wave, such as London and northwest. It is predicted.

The current roadmap from the blockade in the United Kingdom shows non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which will be released sequentially from April 12, 2021. There is a pause between the releases of various interventions to assess the impact on transmission.

The transmission rate has increased since the school was reopened on March 8, and the R number is now estimated to be close to 1 (0.85).

Vaccine deployment

Model estimates are highly dependent on the expected vaccine efficacy, intake, and rate of deployment.

Researchers estimate that they will be able to maintain a weekly vaccination pace of 2 million times after August 2, 2021, which is currently unknown.

Dr. Anne Cori of the Faculty of Public Health said: death In an infected individual. It also reduces infection by reducing both the risk of infection and the infectivity of infected individuals.

“Our model explains all these effects, captures the uncertainties around each of them, and the parameters are updated regularly to reflect the latest available evidence. vaccine Effectiveness. “

SAGE released Report It announced on Monday, April 5, 2021, a roadmap from the British government’s blockade of the United Kingdom.


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Quote: The COVID-19 Roadmap for Resumption is the first in England obtained on April 8, 2021 from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-covid-roadmap-reopening-england.html. May lead to 3 waves (April 8, 2021)

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COVID-19 roadmap for reopening could lead to a third wave in England Source link COVID-19 roadmap for reopening could lead to a third wave in England

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