Airbus expects airlines to order more aircraft from the previous forecast over the next 20 years to replace less fuel-efficient aircraft, but said the number of passengers will not increase as quickly as previously thought.
B Forecast for 20 years Released on Monday, the European Aviation and Space Group has raised its forecast for global aircraft deliveries by all manufacturers to 39,490 from 39,020.
About 80% of shipments are expected to be for one-way aircraft, which typically serve short- and medium-term destinations, while 2,400 aircraft will be new and converted cargo aircraft.
The upward correction is in part a result of the 2021 release from the 20-year rolling forecast period. Last year was particularly weak for shipments, as the industry struggled to get out of the epidemic, which led to the temporary fixation of most of the global fleet.
Airbus said it expects passenger traffic to grow more slowly than in the past, at 3.6% a year instead of the 3.9% forecast in November, as energy costs and the cost of carbon will begin to hit the sector.
“As energy prices go up, whether we’re talking about crude oil prices or carbon dioxide pricing or alternative fuels, there is a strong correlation between what’s good for the environment and the fact that just for operating costs, airlines are very, very motivated to demand the latest, efficient aircraft. And the lowest in emissions, “said Bob Lang, head of business analysis and market forecast at Airbus.
Only 20 percent of all aircraft in service today are in the latest generation of fuel-efficient aircraft, such as Airbus’ best-selling A320neo narrow-body aircraft and a Boeing rival, the 737 Max. However, this is an increase from 13% in 2019.
The company still expects air traffic to recover to pre-epidemic levels at some point between 2023 and 2025, amid ongoing pressure from rising inflation as well as the risk of a further eruption of versions of Covid-19.
Orders from Asia, which has driven demand for aircraft in recent years, are expected to be slightly lower than Airbus’ previous forecast. However, China is still ready to overtake the US as the busiest airline market in the world in the coming years.
The company’s assumptions include global economic growth of 2.6 percent per year, and an increase in passenger and cargo traffic of 3.6 percent and 3.2 percent per year, respectively.
Airbus raises outlook for global jet demand Source link Airbus raises outlook for global jet demand